Accepted manuscript
Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change
Communications earth & environment
20 Jun 2026
Abstract
Gymnosperms play important ecological and evolutionary roles, but many species in Asia are increasingly threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Here we examined current gymnosperm diversity using species richness, geographic rarity and evolutionary uniqueness, and combined ecological niche modelling with measures of species richness to examine patterns of gymnosperm diversity in eastern and southern Asia under past, present, and future climates. We found that the Hengduan Mountains and parts of central Japan contain especially high diversity, while southwestern, southern, and southeastern China hold many evolutionarily distinct and geographically restricted species. Climate projections suggest that many current diversity hotspots could lose most suitable habitat by 2100, with 33 species facing possible extinction and 29 becoming highly vulnerable. Future climate refugia are predicted mainly in Indochina, India, southern China, Taiwan, and the southern Himalayas. Our results highlight the urgent need to expand protected areas and consider assisted migration for vulnerable species.
Metrics
1 Record Views
Details
- Title
- Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change
- Creators
- Cindy Q Tang - Yunnan UniversityTetsuya Matsui - Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteTakuto Shitara - Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteNeus NualartArnau Bosch Guiu - Estacion Experimental de Zonas AridasPeng- Bin Han - Yunnan UniversityShenhua Qian - Chongqing UniversityYi-Fei DongJiangshan Lai - Nanjing Forestry UniversityPaul J Grote - Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat UniversityHong Truong Luu - Vietnam Academy of Science and TechnologyDinesh Raj Bhuju - Madan Bhandari University of Science and TechnologyShandesh Bhattarai - Nepal Academy of Science and TechnologyBen A LePage - Drexel UniversityKevin Robertson - Tall Timbers Research Station and Land ConservancyHaruka Ohashi - Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteMin-Rui Du - Yunnan UniversityMing-Chun Peng - Yunnan UniversityChongyun Wang - Yunnan UniversityShuaifeng Li - Yunnan UniversityYou-Cai Shi - Yunnan UniversityShu-Li Xiao - Yunnan UniversityShi-Gang Li - Yunnan UniversityKai Yan - Yunnan UniversityJordi López-Pujol - Universidad Espíritu Santo
- Publication Details
- Communications earth & environment
- Resource Type
- Accepted manuscript
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University
- Other Identifier
- 991022198948904721