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Event-Based Microbial Risk Assessment and Response Analysis of Cryptosporidium in Municipal Water Distribution Networks
Book chapter

Event-Based Microbial Risk Assessment and Response Analysis of Cryptosporidium in Municipal Water Distribution Networks

R. G Austin, T. C Balagopal, P. L Gurian and C. Y Choi
Water Distribution Systems Analysis 2010, pp 459-470
2010
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/41203(425)44

Abstract

Monte Carlo method Water distribution systems Risk management Municipal water
Traditional risk assessment techniques examine risk of infection or disease in the context of long term risk. The current study takes an event-based approach to evaluating the risk of high impact contamination events. The purpose of this event-based approach is to both evaluate the vulnerability of water distribution systems to such events and to determine the impact that actions taken can have on these events. While Cryptosporidium is used as the microbial agent for this study, the results are also intended to provide general information about the characteristics of most other contamination events in water distribution networks. Risk assessment is done using a Monte Carlo framework and simulated events are created using EPANET as the hydraulic and water quality model. To simulate contamination episodes, an exemplary network is used, along with the actions taken by the water utility to mitigate the impact. The reaction to the simulated events is modeled by stopping consumption. A delay is used to represent reaction time in the network. This shows the importance of sensor networks and risk mitigation planning. Sensitivity analysis is also used to indicate the most important parameters in the risk assessment and to indicate which parameters may be further refined so as to improve the model's accuracy.

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3 citations in Scopus

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