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Tendency to under- and overestimate caloric intake and calorie estimation accuracy in behavioral weight loss program
Conference poster   Peer reviewed

Tendency to under- and overestimate caloric intake and calorie estimation accuracy in behavioral weight loss program

Ivy Dang, Danny Choo-Kang, Charlotte Hagerman and Evan M Forman
Annals of behavioral medicine, v 60(Supplement_1), pp S636-S636
01 Apr 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaag012#page=S636
url
https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaag012#page=S636View
Published, Version of Record (VoR) Open

Abstract

Weight loss Eating behaviors
Calorie restriction is a recommended strategy for weight loss, and behavioral weight loss (BWL) programs instruct participants to self-monitor food intake to achieve a caloric deficit. The importance of accurate caloric estimation is therefore widely recognized. However, calorie underreporting is common and more pronounced among people with overweight/obesity. Underestimating calories can lead to overeating, hindering weight loss efforts and compromising intervention effectiveness. Although caloric estimation accuracy is linked to weight status, it is unclear whether it predicts success in weight loss attempts. This study examined whether baseline accuracy in assessing calories predicts success in a BWL program for men, who are traditionally underrepresented in this research. The study is a secondary data analysis of 134 men with overweight/obesity enrolled in NeuroFit, a long-term, app-based BWL program for men that teaches weight loss through calorie restriction. At baseline, men estimated the calories of 20 food images. Tendency to under- or overestimate calories was calculated as the mean difference between estimated and actual values (negative scores=underestimation, positive scores=overestimation). Caloric estimation accuracy was defined as the number of estimates within 20% of the correct value. Percent weight loss was measured at six and twelve months. Contrary to expectations, when controlling for baseline BMI, tendency to underestimate predicted more weight loss at 6 months (β = -.28, t = -3.30, p = .001) and 12 months (β = -.20, t = -2.22, p = 0.03). Caloric estimation accuracy did not predict weight loss at 6 months (β = .04, t = .40, p > .05) or 12 months (β = .01, t = .08, p > .05). Our results contradict the hypothesis that people who underestimate calories lose less weight. However, a post-hoc interpretation is that men with a preexisting tendency to underestimate calorie intake were more responsive to the intervention, which strongly emphasized the importance of accurate calorie counting and overestimating whenever possible. By comparison, men who already overestimated calories may have faced more challenging barriers to weight loss (e.g., strong hedonic drive). Findings suggest that BWL programs may be most useful for people who need education on the caloric content of food. However, more research is needed, particularly in samples that include women.

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