Conference proceeding
Managing catastrophic risk to Istanbul's housing infrastructure
BRIDGE MAINTENANCE, SAFETY, MANAGEMENT AND LIFE-CYCLE OPTIMIZATION, pp.1258-1264
01 Jan 2010
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
This study conducted a comparative analysis of mitigation alternatives for a destructive scale earthquake (magnitude 7.68) in the Zeytinburnu District in the City of Istanbul, Turkey. Zeytinburnu is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes due to the district's close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault, alluvial soil, and seismically weak residential building stock. The mitigation strategies investigated within the scope included seismic retrofit to reduce the probability of building collapse during an earthquake, relocation of the family to a seismically-stable dwelling, or to take no action at all.
The study considers economic loss for the most vulnerable residential building groups including poor quality, mid-rise reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings and weak masonry structures. The focus on these two building types is driven by the fact that 86% of the residents of Zeytinburnu live in mid-rise, clustered, apartment houses, 69% of which are considered unsafe. Masonry dwelling units in Zeytinburnu are generally of poor quality and would not likely provide the lateral resistance to withstand a major seismic event. Viable retrofitting measures appropriate to these types of buildings were identified in the study.
Decision trees were developed in order to compare expected values of the three earthquake mitigation alternatives. Separate evaluations were conducted for both building types. The RC units were analyzed at three levels of damage, while two probabilities were considered for masonry structures; destructive scale damage and no destructive scale damage. The total loss calculated for each outcome was the sum of property loss, mortality loss (in high damage scenario) and cost of the selected action. The expected property loss was a function of the damage ratio and value of the housing unit. The expected costs for the RC scenario were $9,372 for the retrofit option, $9,760 for relocation, and $17,612 if no action were taken. The expected costs for the masonry building scenario was $18,137 for the retrofit option, $18,301 for relocation, and $23,157 if no action were taken. While there does not appear to be substantial benefit of adopting retrofitting measures over relocating to a seismically-safe home, mitigation clearly is preferred over taking no action at all. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the mitigation alternatives were preferred over the no action alternative over the full range of parameters values. While this is a preliminary study, that required many assumptions and is subject to substantial uncertainty, the expense of the mitigation efforts appears justified. While future efforts to improve the risk assessment are justified, efforts to improve risk communication and develop public policies to reduce this risk are a priority.
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Details
- Title
- Managing catastrophic risk to Istanbul's housing infrastructure
- Creators
- R. W. Muir - Drexel Univ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USAN. Sunger - Drexel Univ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USAR. Wittke - Drexel Univ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USAP. L. Gurian - Drexel University
- Contributors
- D M Frangopol (Editor)R Sause (Editor)C S Kusko (Editor)
- Publication Details
- BRIDGE MAINTENANCE, SAFETY, MANAGEMENT AND LIFE-CYCLE OPTIMIZATION, pp.1258-1264
- Publisher
- Taylor & Francis
- Number of pages
- 7
- Resource Type
- Conference proceeding
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering
- Identifiers
- 991019170471504721
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- Engineering, Civil
- Engineering, Mechanical
- Materials Science, Characterization & Testing