Dataset
External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery
04 Mar 2016
Abstract
We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure for estimation, and estimate models of instrumental
voting, altruistic voting, expressive voting, and ethical voting. All the models except the ethical model recover the concealed parameters reasonably well. We also report the results of a counterfactual analysis based on the recovered parameters, to compare the policy implications of the different models about the cost of a subsidy to increase turnout.
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Details
- Title
- External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery
- Creators
- Antonio Merlo - Rice UniversityThomas R. Palfrey - California Institute of Technology
- Publisher
- California Institute of Technology
- Grant note
- SES-0094800 / NSF SES-0079301 / NSF California Social Science Experimental Laboratory (CASSEL) SES-0450712 / NSF
- Resource Type
- Dataset
- Language
- English
- Other Identifier
- 991022173541004721