Files and links (1)
PDFOpen Access (License Unspecified), Open Access
Dissertation
Development and use of a dynamic disease propagation model for assessing risk from common source epidemics
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Drexel University
Mar 1999
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/00000835
Abstract
A disease propagation model for analyzing epidemic data from common source outbreaks of diseases, has been developed. A computer program based on the above mentioned model was implemented using the popular mathematical programming environment MATLABTM. A number of incubation period models have been explored by researchers to model time lag in disease propagation. The disease model implemented for this study is flexible and allows the incubation period distribution to be modeled as any analytically defined probability distribution function. Best fit Incubation period distributions were evaluated for a number of reported outbreaks of commonly occurring diseases. The time of infection (infectivity distribution) was also evaluated for some of the outbreaks. Statistically significant fits were obtained for most of the epidemic outbreak data analyzed using the computer model. The lognormal distribution has been extensively used for explaining observed incubation period distributions of diseases. The weibull and inverse gaussian distributions were found to be much better for the purpose. The use of the model for investigating the time of infection from the epidemic curve (response curve) was explored. The time of infection for some well documented outbreaks like the Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak and the Cabool, Missouri E. coli 157:H7 outbreak, was evaluated. The model predictions were in line with the investigation results of the epidemiological investigators and other physical data. The dynamic model also explained a number of observations made about relationships between parameters like attack rates, incubation period, severity of disease for Salmonella outbreaks. The issue of relationship between the infective dose and incubation period distribution for diseases caused by a number of common pathogens, was also addressed.
Metrics
7 File views/ downloads
20 Record Views
Details
- Title
- Development and use of a dynamic disease propagation model for assessing risk from common source epidemics
- Creators
- Mukul Gupta
- Contributors
- Charles Nathan Haas (Advisor)
- Awarding Institution
- Drexel University
- Degree Awarded
- Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
- Publisher
- Drexel University; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Number of pages
- xii, 196 pages
- Resource Type
- Dissertation
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- School of Environmental Science, Engineering, and Policy (1997-2002); Drexel University
- Other Identifier
- 991014970207404721