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Excitation, model and analysis uncertainties in seismic assessment of bridges
Dissertation   Open access

Excitation, model and analysis uncertainties in seismic assessment of bridges

Mohammad Reza Falamarz-Sheikhabadi
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Drexel University
Aug 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/snte-2f30
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Falamarz-Sheikhabadi_Mohammad_201715.46 MBDownloadView

Abstract

Earthquake hazard analysis Civil Engineering
In seismic assessments, structural engineers must visualize the structure and its environment. As a matter of fact, the visualized system is obviously not the actual one, and, hence, the numerical simulation of structural systems possess some inherent uncertainties associated with the simplification/abstraction. The uncertainty sources affecting the seismic assessment of structures are often characterized as either aleatoric or epistemic in nature. Aleatoric uncertainty refers to randomness, i.e. stems from the unpredictable nature of events, and epistemic uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge, i.e. stems from incomplete data, ignorance, or modeling assumptions. The main objective of this dissertation is to examine the current strategy in seismic design/assessment of bridges by considering the effect of various sources of uncertainty. This research effort investigates the impact of three main sources of uncertainty in seismic assessments, i.e. excitation scenario, system modeling strategy, and analysis methodology, on the reliability of the computational prediction of the seismic behavior of bridges. Analytical considerations and numerical results of the present study highlight the difficulties with the conventional procedures proposed by codes in the seismic design/assessment of bridges, and provide practice-oriented recommendations for: (1) increasing the reliability of the numerical results, and (2) decreasing the dispersion of the structural response.

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