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Dissertation
Predicting juvenile recidivism and validating juvenile risk factors in an urban environment
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University; Villanova University, School of Law
Aug 2002
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/00008671
Abstract
This study attempted to validate the risk factors associated with juvenile recidivism, which would provide an empirical basis for identifying risk factors, and improving prediction of juvenile recidivism in an urban environment. Its primary purpose was to investigate juvenile recidivism prediction as a function of the static and dynamic risk factors identified in the literature on juvenile recidivism by integrating three psychometric instruments (the PCL:YV, the MAYSI, and the YLS/CMI) into a classification and prediction model. Although not part of the original design, this study also examined the predictive relationship between these instruments and certification status, previous involvement with the juvenile justice system, and the number and severity of the charges brought against each participant as part of the decertification process. The results consistently demonstrated that there was little relationship or predictive utility between recidivism and any of the independent variables used in this study. Conversely, the results of this study data consistently demonstrated a relationship between certification status and a number of the independent variables used in this study. These results suggested that these variables and instruments might be useful in distinguishing participants who were decertified from those who were not, and for predicting certification status. Similarly, the results of this study suggested that these variables might be useful in distinguishing participants with past involvement with the criminal justice system, and for predicting such past involvement. The final areas of inquiry for this study was whether the PCL:YV, YLS/CMI, and the MAYSI possessed utility as predictors of violent charges/offenses and total charges. The results suggested that there is little utility in using these instruments to predict violent or total number of offenses. Generally, the results of this study do not support the direct use of the PCL:YV, YLS/CMI, and MAYSI for predicting recidivism, or for distinguishing between individuals who recidivated and those who did not. Results of this study do, however, lend significant support for the use of these instruments for indirectly assessing recidivism risk, and directly in the decertification process and for predicting previous charges. There was little support for the use of these instruments to predict violent crime or total charges. In conclusion, this study provided some empirical support for the use of these instruments in the juvenile justice system. The study demonstrated that these instruments have some utility in predicting certification status, which could be indirectly related to recidivism or dangerousness. Similarly, the results of this study support both the actuarial and dynamic risk factor approaches to risk assessment and classification.
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Details
- Title
- Predicting juvenile recidivism and validating juvenile risk factors in an urban environment
- Creators
- Geoffrey R. Marczyk
- Contributors
- Kirk Heilbrun (Advisor) - Drexel University, Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University (1993-1996, 1998-2002)
- Awarding Institution
- Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University; Villanova University, School of Law
- Degree Awarded
- Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
- Publisher
- Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University; Villanova University, School of Law; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Number of pages
- ix, 190 pages
- Resource Type
- Dissertation
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Clinical and Health Psychology [Historical]; Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University (1993-1996, 1998-2002); College of Nursing and Health Professions (2000-2002)
- Other Identifier
- 991021888827104721