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Principal stratification and Bayesian testing in clinical trials with intercurrent events
Dissertation   Open access

Principal stratification and Bayesian testing in clinical trials with intercurrent events

Dominique Antionette McDaniel
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Drexel University
Dec 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/00001945
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Abstract

Causal inference Intercurrent events Clinical Trials
Patients in clinical trials may discontinue their randomized study treatments due to intercurrent events such as adverse side-effects. Accordingly, clinical trials for drug approval must evaluate treatment effects while accounting for intermediate outcomes, to prevent biased inferences that could arise from confounding of latent variables. Existing statistical methodologies for clinical trials such as intention- to - treat typically ignore treatment discontinuation and focus on treatment assignment. Principal Stratification as identified by the ICH E9 (R1) addendum is a strategy to deal with intercurrent events in clinical trials. In this dissertation we (1) introduce a Bayesian testing methodology that can account for the existence of principal strata in clinical trials with intercurrent events, (2) present a Bayesian multiple testing strategy that can account for the existence of principal stratum and multiplicity, and (3) extend methodology for sensitivity analysis to assess assumptions of the use principal stratum methods. The potential utility of these methodologies will be illustrated on simulated clinical trials from a novel data generating model that accounts for multiple intercurrent events under the potential outcomes framework.

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