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An assessment of reservoir filling policies under a changing climate for Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam
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An assessment of reservoir filling policies under a changing climate for Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

Andrew M. King
Master of Science (M.S.), Drexel University
May 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/etd-4267
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Abstract

Hydroelectric power plants--Ethiopia--Sudan Blue Nile River Valley--Ethiopia--Sudan Civil Engineering
Africas largest hydropower facility is currently under construction on the main stem of the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. Construction of the estimated $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began in 2011 and is slated to be fully operational in late 2017. The GERD is poised to facilitate regional development with a 63 billion cubic meter reservoir and 6,000 MW of power generating capacity. Of keen interest to the water managers within the Nile River Basin is the transient filling stage of the massive reservoir. To date, however no reservoir filling rate policy has been established. This policy will have clear implications on the GERDs ability to generate hydropower in the near-term and coincidentally impact people and livelihoods in the downstream nations of Sudan and Egypt through reduced streamflow availability. Implications of climate variability and emerging climate change within Ethiopia cast further uncertainty on potential filling policies and system operations. To address this challenge, numerous filling policies are evaluated through a climate-sensitivity approach to estimate impacts on reservoir filling time, hydropower production, and downstream flows. This provides viable and timely points of comparison for regional water managers and politicians negotiating system operations in the midst of ongoing project construction.

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