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Developing a modeling framework for nonstationary urban hydraulic analyses
Thesis   Open access

Developing a modeling framework for nonstationary urban hydraulic analyses

Ge Pu
Master of Science (M.S.), Drexel University
01 Jun 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/etd-6527
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Abstract

Urban runoff--Management--Pennsylvania--Philadelphia Climatic changes--Risk assessment-- Pennsylvania--Philadelphia Environmental Engineering
Multiple recent national and international climate assessment reports suggest that the frequency, duration and intensity of future extreme precipitation in the North East US will increase. Urban cities in this region like Philadelphia are extremely vulnerable to these impacts due to their combined sewer overflows (CSO). These are mainly due to the fact that the sewer systems receive higher than normal flows during heavy precipitation. Hence, they seek to incorporate the best available information about current and future climate and understand the extent of their impacts on their stormwater network. This project intends to develop a general modeling framework for integrating multiple sources of information such as rain gauge data and climate scenarios for extreme rainfall events with prescribed duration using a Hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique. It aims to develop a stochastic temporal rainfall field simulator for the analysis of the extreme rainfall precipitation events. The approach here is to minimize uncertainties in stationary hydraulic assessment models with non-stationary ones. Five extreme rainfall models were developed for improvements with both stationary and non-stationary modeling frameworks. Recommendations and evaluations of these model outcomes are evaluated and discussed to provide a critical path towards informing climate adaptation decision on the ground.

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