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Rapid small-scale evaluation of expected annual flood damages under sea level rise scenarios
Thesis   Open access

Rapid small-scale evaluation of expected annual flood damages under sea level rise scenarios

Troy Robert Louis Ludlow
Master of Science (M.S.), Drexel University
Jun 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17918/00000394
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Abstract

Coast changes Flood insurance Flood forecasting Sea level--Measurement
Flooding is among the most costly and unpredictable of natural hazards. Predictive tools have gotten more accurate for determining the time and severity of a storm and associated flooding, but there is still the issue of protecting coastal communities from flood damages. This issue is enhanced by the effect of sea level rise on the severity and frequency of coastal flood events. The primary goal of this thesis is to provide a framework to evaluate and monetize current and future vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas to flooding. The framework is designed to utilize openly available data and software to avoid the need for expensive proprietary software. As such, it is intended to be usable to professional and non-professional users alike. Applying this framework, individuals can determine the average expected annual damages for individual structures or groups of structures for existing and future scenarios utilizing sea level rise projections. The results can be used for cost-benefit analyses of different coastal adaptation strategies and in the prediction of future actuarially fair insurance premiums. The framework was applied to a study area in Ocean City, New Jersey, a community that has already implemented coastal protection measures including sea walls and dunes. During 2019, expected annual losses would have been roughly 43 times greater had these protective measures not been in place. However, by the year 2100, the marginal benefit of the protective infrastructure will be rendered negligible due to sea level rise. By that year, the expected annual damages in the study area will be 60 times higher than they were in 2019. Using the results of this analysis, community planners and homeowners can make informed decisions regarding how to adapt to growing coastal vulnerability.

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