Objective: To develop and validate a mortality risk algorithm for obese black and white men and women to elucidate risk factors prognostic of short-term mortality among obese persons.
Methods: Prospective cohort study. Reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke (REGARDS) study, is a cohort of black and white men and women aged >= 45 years. Obese (>= 30 kg m(-2)) participants in REGARDS (n=11 288) were randomly assigned to the derivation data set or an independent validation set.
Results: During the mean follow-up period of 4.9 years, 8.9% (n=504) in the derivation cohort and 8.7% (n=492) in the validation cohort died. The best-fitting model based on data from the derivation cohort included demographic (age, sex), coronary heart disease (CHD) conditions (diabetes, systolic blood pressure, history of CHD), health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, alcohol use), and socioeconomic variables (income, use of physician services). The C-statistic when the model was applied to the validation cohort was 0.80. Observed and predicted rates of mortality were similar across deciles of mortality risk by race.
Conclusions: A risk algorithm was established and validated to predict mortality among black and white obese subjects based on CHD risk factors, behavioral risk factors, and socioeconomic status.
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Title
A Risk Algorithm for Assessing Short-Term Mortality for Obese Black and White Men and Women
Creators
Susan G. Lakoski - University of Vermont
Himel Mallick - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Leslie A. McClure - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Monika Safford - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Brett Kissela - University of Cincinnati
George Howard - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Mary Cushman - University of Vermont
Publication Details
Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), v 22(4), pp 1142-1148
Publisher
Wiley
Number of pages
7
Grant note
R01HL080477 / NATIONAL HEART, LUNG, AND BLOOD INSTITUTE; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI)
U01 NS041588 / National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Service; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Neurological Disorders & Stroke (NINDS)
UL1TR001425 / NATIONAL CENTER FOR ADVANCING TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS)
P20MD006899 / National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute on Minority Health & Health Disparities (NIMHD)
U01NS041588 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF NEUROLOGICAL DISORDERS AND STROKE; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Neurological Disorders & Stroke (NINDS)
Resource Type
Journal article
Language
English
Academic Unit
Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Web of Science ID
WOS:000333666800025
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-84897471390
Other Identifier
991019231726204721
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