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A non-Markovian stochastic model for the Taichung medical IUD experiment
Journal article   Peer reviewed

A non-Markovian stochastic model for the Taichung medical IUD experiment

Gary S. Littman and Charles J. Mode
Mathematical biosciences, v 34(3), pp 279-302
1977
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(77)90106-7

Abstract

A non-Markovian stochastic model is developed and validated within the context of data from the Taichung Medical IUD Study. The principles of the more traditionally used semi-Markov processes are first set down, along with the presentation of a computing algorithm to handle a key calculation arising in connection with these processes. Then, the set of data from the Taichung study is described, and an indication is given as to why a Markovian process is inappropriate for modeling the behavior reported in these data. Using semi-Markov processes to model various portions of the reproductive process, an overall non-Markovian model is developed with a view towards the contraceptive-pregnancy history of an individual as a sequential decision process. Some calculations based on this model are presented along with empirical determinations from the data reflecting what actually occurred. A comparison of these calculations and determinations shows that the model seems to describe the behavior reported quite well.

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13 citations in Web of Science
12 citations in Scopus

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