Journal article
A population projection component of a computer system—population policies and birth targets
Mathematical biosciences, v 36(1), pp 87-107
1977
Abstract
As part of their economic development plans to modernize and increase their standards of living, many developing countries have a population policy of reducing some measure of fertility, such as the crude birth rate, by a fixed number of percentage points over a decade. Population policies of this nature give rise to the problem of determining the number of acceptors of contraception required to attain the targeted number of births prescribed by policy. The purpose of this paper is to set forth a population projection component of a computer system designed to supply solutions to the birth target problem. Although the crude birth rate is given specific attention, the system is sufficiently general to accommodate birth targets prescribed in terms of other measures of fertility such as age-specific birth rates. The paper is divided into twelve sections. After introducing the problem in Sec. 1 and reviewing pertinent literature, the target problem is formulated mathematically in Sec. 2 in terms of the crude birth rate. Section 3 contains an overview of the projection system followed by Secs. 4 and 5 on projecting total population size and single females. A classification of acceptors of contraception (family planning) is set down in Sec. 6. Then there follow Sections 7,8, and 9 on projecting nonacceptors of family planning, estimating the number of new acceptors, and projecting acceptors of family planning. Section 10 is devoted to formulas for estimating the number of births associated with various classifications of acceptors of family planning and Sec. 11 provides algorithms for determining the number of births required by the target problem. Finally, the paper concludes with Sec. 12 on estimating the number of units of contraceptive protection required to attain a given level of births. Numerical examples illustrating the use of the projection system described in this paper will be presented elsewhere.
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Details
- Title
- A population projection component of a computer system—population policies and birth targets
- Creators
- Charles J. Mode - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- Mathematical biosciences, v 36(1), pp 87-107
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:A1977EA73100007
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-0017659215
- Other Identifier
- 991019173630904721