Journal article
A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population
Mathematical biosciences, v 107(2), pp 491-520
1991
PMID: 1806129
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
A non-age-dependent model, describing the evolution of a bisexual population, is developed in this paper and applied to projecting an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population. Included in the formulation are frequency- and non-frequency-dependent rules of partnership formation as well as five states of HIV disease, affecting the probability of infection per sexual contact. Results from computer experiments, designed to study the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population fed by single males with a 50% prevalence of HIV infection prior to becoming active in heterosexual partnerships, are reported. In these experiments, the only source of HIV infection for females was sexual contacts with infected males within partnerships. Data on the probability of infection per sexual contact with an infected partner and the number of sexual contacts per month were incorporated into the model. However, the numbers used for the initial population of singles, couples, and those becoming sexually active per month were hypothetical. Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among males entering heterosexual partnerships was high, after 30 years the projected prevalence of HIV infection among females ranged from about 10 to 15% depending in part of the expected duration of partnerships and on whether the frequency- or non-frequency-dependent model was used. In these experiments, solutions of the embedded, nonlinear, deterministic equations for the incidence of HIV infection and the cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS proved to be good measures of central tendency for the sample functions of the stochastic population process.
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Details
- Title
- A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population
- Creators
- Charles J. Mode - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- Mathematical biosciences, v 107(2), pp 491-520
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:A1991GV02300020
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-0026346160
- Other Identifier
- 991019173994204721
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- Web of Science research areas
- Biology
- Mathematical & Computational Biology