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A stochastic model of natural human fertility- algorithms and numerical examples
Journal article   Peer reviewed

A stochastic model of natural human fertility- algorithms and numerical examples

Charles J. Mode and Michael G. Soyka
Mathematical biosciences, v 35(3)
1977

Abstract

A model of human fertility under natural fecundability is an important component of a computer system designed to yield solutions to the problem of estimating the number of acceptors of family planning required to reduce the crude birth rate by a specified amount over a decade. In this paper, such a model is developed which accommodates age and parity dependence by linking together a sequence of absorbing, age-dependent semi- Markov processes. Algorithms necessary for the computerization of the system are also presented along with estimation procedures illustrating their use.

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