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A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis

Marcus C. Sarofim, Jeremy Martinich, James E. Neumann, Jacqueline Willwerth, Zoe Kerrich, Michael Kolian, Charles Fant and Corinne Hartin
Climatic change, v 165(1-2), 22
Mar 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6
PMID: 34321705
url
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6View
Published, Version of Record (VoR) Open

Abstract

Article Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences
Characterizing the future risks of climate change is a key goal of climate impacts analysis. Temperature binning provides a framework for analyzing sector-specific impacts by degree of warming as an alternative or complement to traditional scenario-based approaches in order to improve communication of results, comparability between studies, and flexibility to facilitate scenario analysis. In this study, we estimate damages for nine climate impact sectors within the contiguous United States (US) using downscaled climate projections from six global climate models, at integer degrees of US national warming. Each sector is analyzed based on socioeconomic conditions for both the beginning and the end of the century. The potential for adaptive measures to decrease damages is also demonstrated for select sectors; differences in damages across adaptation response scenarios within some sectors can be as much as an order of magnitude. Estimated national damages from these sectors based on a reactive adaptation assumption and 2010 socioeconomic conditions range from $600 million annually per degree of national warming for winter recreation to $8 billion annually per degree of national warming for labor impacts. Results are also estimated per degree of global temperature change and for 2090 socioeconomic conditions.

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