Journal article
Applying a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to examine excess county-level cardiovascular disease death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic
American journal of epidemiology, v 194(6), pp 1556-1565
01 Jun 2025
PMID: 39218426
Abstract
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, national cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates increased, especially among younger adults. County-level variation has not been documented. Using county-level CVD deaths (ICD-10 codes: I00-I99) from the US National Vital Statistics System, we developed a Bayesian multivariate spatiotemporal model to estimate excess CVD death rates in 2020 based on trends from 2010 to 2019 for adults aged 35-64 and >= 65 years. Among adults aged 35-64 years, 64.7% of counties experienced significant excess CVD death rates. The median county-level CVD death rate in 2020 was 150 per 100 000 persons, which exceeded the predicted rate for 2020 (median excess death rate, 11 per 100 000; median excess rate ratio, 1.08). Among adults aged >= 65 years, 15.2% of counties experienced significant excess CVD death rates. The median county-level CVD death rate was 1546 per 100 000 in 2020, which exceeded the predicted rate in 2020 (median excess death rate, 48 per 100 000; median excess rate ratio, 1.03). Counties with significant excess death rates in 2020 were geographically dispersed. In 2020, disruptions of county-level CVD death rates were widespread, especially among younger adults, suggesting the continued importance of CVD prevention and treatment in younger adults in communities across the country.
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Details
- Title
- Applying a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to examine excess county-level cardiovascular disease death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Creators
- Adam S. Vaughan (Corresponding Author) - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionHarrison Quick - Drexel University, Epidemiology and BiostatisticsKara B. Beck - CDCP, Div Heart Dis & Stroke Prevent, Atlanta, GA USARebecca C. Woodruff - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDavid Delara - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionMichele Casper - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Publication Details
- American journal of epidemiology, v 194(6), pp 1556-1565
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Number of pages
- 10
- Grant note
- R01HL158802 / National Institute of Health's National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute K.B.B.'s appointment to the Research Participation Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:001438587400001
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-105008341613
- Other Identifier
- 991021902061204721
InCites Highlights
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health