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Assessing industrial-driven regional water vulnerability and targeted adaptive management: An integrated resilience-based framework
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Assessing industrial-driven regional water vulnerability and targeted adaptive management: An integrated resilience-based framework

Baolu Wang, Jun Liu, Liyi Liu, Yan Tu and Benjamin Lev
Journal of cleaner production, v 573, 149006
02 Aug 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149006
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Abstract

Engineering, Environmental Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Green & Sustainable Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Science & Technology Science & Technology - Other Topics Engineering Technology
The high risk associated with industrial water use and the asymmetry of accident consequences shape decision-makers' strong aversion to losses. However, existing water resource vulnerability (WRV) assessments often overlook decision-makers' risk aversion and system resilience. To address this, this study develops an industrial-driven regional water vulnerability (IDRWV) framework integrating Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Resilience (DPSIRR) diagnosis, stochastic Deck of Cards (DoC)-CRITIC weighting, and prospect-theory-based K-means-TODIMSort classification. This framework distinguishes external response from endogenous resilience, quantifies expert cognitive divergence, and captures loss-averse vulnerability sorting. Anhui Province in China, a typical industrial-agricultural composite region, serves as the case study. Results indicate that the provincial IDRWV score increases from 0.5013 in 2012 to 0.8086 in 2023, while the number of cities reaching Level V or above rises from 1 to 13. The 2020 peak score of 0.8312 reveals the short-term effect of end-of-pipe treatment, but source reduction remains a bottleneck. Industrial wastewater environmental load ratio (q = 0.6868) and total industrial wastewater discharge (q = 0.6015) are the dominant drivers, indicating a shift from discharge-volume control to load-capacity mismatch management. The rigid industrial structure of heavy industrial cities along the Yangtze River causes their IDRWV improvement to lag behind, making resilience building the key to overcoming their developmental challenges. This study reveals that the key to the transformation of industrialized cities lies in establishing a water resource resilience system that aligns with industrial structures through adaptive management.

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