Journal article
Characterizing the risk of infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger aircraft using quantitative microbial risk assessment
Risk analysis, v 29(3), pp 355-365
Mar 2009
PMID: 19076326
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-1) per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a "superspreader" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude.
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Details
- Title
- Characterizing the risk of infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger aircraft using quantitative microbial risk assessment
- Creators
- Rachael M Jones - School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USAYoshifumi MasagoTimothy BartrandCharles N HaasMark NicasJoan B Rose
- Publication Details
- Risk analysis, v 29(3), pp 355-365
- Publisher
- Wiley; United States
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000263360900006
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-60349121321
- Other Identifier
- 991014877656204721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
- Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods