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City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

Josiah L Kephart, Brisa N Sánchez, Jeffrey Moore, Leah H Schinasi, Maryia Bakhtsiyarava, Yang Ju, Nelson Gouveia, Waleska T Caiaffa, Iryna Dronova, Saravanan Arunachalam, …
Nature medicine, v 28(8), pp 1700-1705
01 Aug 2022
Featured in Collection :   UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
url
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6View
Published, Version of Record (VoR)CC BY V4.0 Open

Abstract

Ambient temperature Cities Extreme weather Fatalities Heat Mortality Risk Temperature Urbanization Climate Change Older People
Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64–5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046–1.067%) per 1 °C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028–1.040%) per 1 °C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths. An ecological analysis of 326 cities in 9 countries across Latin America found that changes in ambient temperature have a substantial contribution to all-cause mortality, with small increases in extreme heat associated with steep increases in mortality risk.

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#14 Life Below Water
#13 Climate Action
#3 Good Health and Well-Being

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Cell Biology
Medicine, Research & Experimental
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