Journal article
Demographic stochasticity and uncertainty in population projections— a study by computer simulation
Mathematical biosciences, v 79(1), pp 55-72
1986
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Measuring uncertainty in projections of future natural and human populations is a problem that has been under consideration at least two decades. Demographic stochasticity, the idea that reproduction and survivorship are governed in part by laws of chance, plays a role in this uncertainty. Computer simulation experiments partially reported here suggested that, in large populations with homogeneity in laws of reproduction and survivorship among members of a population, the impact of demographic stochasticity on this uncertainty could be low. But, if the laws of reproduction and survivorship are heterogeneous among members of a population, then demographic stochasticity could be a significant factor in measuring the uncertainty of a population projection, even for large populations.
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Details
- Title
- Demographic stochasticity and uncertainty in population projections— a study by computer simulation
- Creators
- Charles J. Mode - Drexel UniversityGary T. Pickens - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- Mathematical biosciences, v 79(1), pp 55-72
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:A1986C016500004
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-0022617489
- Other Identifier
- 991019173983504721
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- Web of Science research areas
- Biology
- Mathematical & Computational Biology