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Demographic stochasticity and uncertainty in population projections— a study by computer simulation
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Demographic stochasticity and uncertainty in population projections— a study by computer simulation

Charles J. Mode and Gary T. Pickens
Mathematical biosciences, v 79(1), pp 55-72
1986

Abstract

Measuring uncertainty in projections of future natural and human populations is a problem that has been under consideration at least two decades. Demographic stochasticity, the idea that reproduction and survivorship are governed in part by laws of chance, plays a role in this uncertainty. Computer simulation experiments partially reported here suggested that, in large populations with homogeneity in laws of reproduction and survivorship among members of a population, the impact of demographic stochasticity on this uncertainty could be low. But, if the laws of reproduction and survivorship are heterogeneous among members of a population, then demographic stochasticity could be a significant factor in measuring the uncertainty of a population projection, even for large populations.

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Web of Science research areas
Biology
Mathematical & Computational Biology
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