Journal article
Discrete time age-dependent branching processes in relation to stable population theory in demography
Mathematical biosciences, v 19(1)
1974
Abstract
A discrete time version of a generalized one-type age-dependent branching process is considered in relation to stable population theory in demography. The motivation underlying the discrete time version of the theory is to make it amenable to computations involving demographic data. After giving a brief discussion of the foundations underlying the process, discrete type renewal equations for the mean and covariance functions of the process are derived. It is then shown how those renewal type equations may be used for making population projections with respect to age-specific birth rates, rates of population growth, and the number of live individuals in each age group, given an initial population with an arbitrary age distribution. A novel feature of the method of population projection introduced in this paper is that it is possible to derive confidence bounds for the projected number of individuals in any age group by utilizing the covariance functions of the process and the central limit theorem.
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8 citations in Scopus
Details
- Title
- Discrete time age-dependent branching processes in relation to stable population theory in demography
- Creators
- Charles J. Mode - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- Mathematical biosciences, v 19(1)
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-0015982221
- Other Identifier
- 991019173778104721