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Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches

Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Walid Mensi, Shawkat Hammoudeh, Asiya Sohail and Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee
Resources policy, v 62, pp 602-615
Aug 2019

Abstract

Causality-in-quantiles Gold Hedging Inflation Quantile-on-Quantile
This paper re-examines the gold-inflation dependence, with emphasis on the empirical validity of the inflation-hedging property of gold for six major countries (China, India, Japan, France, United Kingdom, and the United States) with large gold markets, using the relatively novel techniques the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) and the causality-in- quantiles. The main empirical QQ result shows a positive relationship between gold and inflation for these countries. The inflation-hedging property of gold varies during booms and recessions, and thus the hedging decisions should be made in consideration of the asymmetric nature of the gold-inflation link during different economic conditions. Using the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles method, we find a significant Granger asymmetric causality in the mean and the variance from inflation to gold for China, Japan, France and the UK, except for the extreme (lower and higher) quantiles, indicating that gold may serve as a hedge against inflation only in the mid-quantile ranges or normal economic conditions. •The inflation-hedging property of gold is examined for China, India, France, Japan, the UK and the US.•Both the quantile-on-quantile and nonparametric causality-in-quantiles methods are used.•The inflation-hedging property of gold varies during economic recessions and booms.•There is evidence of nonparametric asymmetric causality from gold to inflation for middle quantiles.•Gold returns and volatility have no effect on inflation in the low and high quantiles.

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