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Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation

Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, Mario Larch and Yoto V. Yotov
European economic review, v 78(78), pp 307-327
Aug 2015

Abstract

Economic integration agreements Gravity equations International trade
Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, international borders, and bilateral distance. First, recent studies focusing on precise and unbiased estimates of effects of economic integration agreements (EIAs) on members׳ trade may be biased upward owing to inadequate control for time-varying exogenous unobservable country-pair-specific changes in bilateral export costs (possibly decreasing the costs of international relative to intranational trade); we find evidence of this bias using a properly specified gravity equation. Second, our novel methodology yields statistically significant estimates of the declining effect of “international borders” on world trade, now accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity in initial levels. Third, we confirm recent evidence providing a solution to the “distance-elasticity puzzle,” but show that these estimates of the declining effect of distance on international trade are biased upward by not accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity. We conclude our study with numerical general equilibrium comparative statics illustrating a substantive difference on trade effects of EIAs with and without allowance for the declining effects of international borders on world trade.

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Economics
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