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Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market

Xiaoyu Chen and Thomas C. Chiang
Research in international business and finance, v 53, 101183
Oct 2020

Abstract

Chinese stock market Downside risk Economic policy uncertainty GARCH model Risk-return relation Uncertainty premium
[Display omitted] •This paper examines the impact of policy uncertainties on Chinese stock returns using monthly observations.•The stock return is negatively correlated with changes in volatility and downside risk.•The stock returns in China are negatively correlated with innovations in economic policy uncertainty and categorical policy uncertainties.•U.S. and other foreign economic policy uncertainties are also significant in explaining Chinese stock returns.•An escalation of U.S. policy uncertainty has a harmful effect on Chinese stocks whether firms are stated owned or listed in U.S. This study finds evidence that a rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to a decline in stock returns in Chinese market; however, a positive coefficient was observed in the lagged EPU as stock prices rebound. This phenomenon also holds true for a rise in uncertainty innovations in fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy and global policy. The evidence leads to conclude that policy uncertainty premiums should be priced into China’s stock prices. An escalation of U.S. policy uncertainty has a significantly harmful effect on Chinese stocks regardless of whether firms are stated own or listed on U.S. market.

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Collaboration types
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Business, Finance
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