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Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform

Jaquelyn L Jahn, Jessica T Simes and Jonathan Jay
JAMA network open, v 7(5), e2412535
01 May 2024
PMID: 38776084
url
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.12535View
Published, Version of Record (VoR) Open

Abstract

Adult Case-Control Studies Female Firearms - economics Firearms - legislation & jurisprudence Firearms - statistics & numerical data Homicide - statistics & numerical data Humans Male Middle Aged New Jersey - epidemiology Violence - economics Violence - statistics & numerical data Wounds, Gunshot - economics Wounds, Gunshot - epidemiology Wounds, Gunshot - mortality Wounds, Gunshot - prevention & control Young Adult
Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.

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4 citations in Scopus

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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

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