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Journal article
External validation of voter turnout models by concealed parameter recovery
Public choice, v 176(1-2), pp 297-314
01 Jul 2018
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters-in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure for estimation, and estimate models of instrumental voting, altruistic voting, expressive voting, and ethical voting. All the models except the ethical voting model recover the concealed parameters reasonably well. We also report the results of a counterfactual analysis based on the recovered parameters, to compare the policy implications of the different models about the cost of a subsidy to increase turnout.
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Details
- Title
- External validation of voter turnout models by concealed parameter recovery
- Creators
- Antonio Merlo - Rice UniversityThomas R. Palfrey - California Institute of Technology
- Publication Details
- Public choice, v 176(1-2), pp 297-314
- Publisher
- Springer Nature
- Number of pages
- 18
- Grant note
- SES-0962802; SES-1426560 / National Science Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000438459400016
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85042588924
- Other Identifier
- 991022026858404721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Economics
- Political Science