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Journal article
Finding Risk-Based Switchover Points for Response Decisions for Environmental Exposure to Bacillus anthracis
Human and ecological risk assessment, v 17(2), pp 489-509
25 Mar 2011
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
In the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, the use of Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) in bioterrorism attacks has emerged as a realistic concern. Thus, a contingency plan is needed to inform decision-makers about which response actions are appropriate and justified under which circumstances. This study considers the decisions: (1) to undertake prophylactic antibiotic treatment; (2) to vaccinate individuals; or (3) to decontaminate the building. While these response actions are clearly justified for highly exposed individuals, a very large number of individuals exposed to very small risks in areas outside of the immediate vicinity of the release are also likely. Our results indicate that there are non-negligible risk thresholds below which response actions produce more costs than benefits. For the base case, the thresholds range from a risk of 1 in 33 for decontamination by fumigation to 1 in 6,547 for antibiotic prophylaxis and 1 in 7,108 for vaccination. A one-way sensitivity analysis on uncertain variables indicates less than an order of magnitude change in these thresholds. Benefit-cost analysis is a useful tool for assessing tradeoffs among alternative decisions, but cannot be the sole criterion in responding to incidents because of inherent limitations.
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Details
- Title
- Finding Risk-Based Switchover Points for Response Decisions for Environmental Exposure to Bacillus anthracis
- Creators
- Jade Mitchell-Blackwood - Drexel UniversityPatrick L. Gurian - Drexel UniversityCara O'Donnell - Institute For Defense Analyses
- Publication Details
- Human and ecological risk assessment, v 17(2), pp 489-509
- Publisher
- Taylor & Francis Group
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000289568200012
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-79956344247
- Other Identifier
- 991019167721004721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Biodiversity Conservation
- Environmental Sciences