We test the predictive power of first-order reversal curve (FORC) diagrams using simulations of random magnets. In particular, we compute a histogram of the switching fields of the underlying microscopic switching units along the major hysteresis loop, and compare to the corresponding FORC diagram. We find qualitative agreement between the switching-field histogram and the FORC diagram, yet differences are noticeable. We discuss possible sources for these differences and present results for frustrated systems where the discrepancies are more pronounced. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.