Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios

Maryia Bakhtsiyarava; Josiah L. Kephart; Brisa N. Sanchez; M.V.S. Ramarao; Saravanan Arunachalam; Nelson Gouveia; Iryna Dronova; Leah H. Schinasi; Usama Bilal; Waleska T. Caiaffa; Andrea Jaffe; Ana V. Diez Roux; Daniel A. Rodriguez

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109694

Back

Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios

Maryia Bakhtsiyarava, Josiah L. Kephart, Brisa N. Sanchez, M.V.S. Ramarao, Saravanan Arunachalam, Nelson Gouveia, Iryna Dronova, Leah H. Schinasi, Usama Bilal, Waleska T. Caiaffa, …

Environment international, v 202, 109694

Aug 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109694

PMID: 40737859

Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel

Files and links (1)

url

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109694View

Published, Version of Record (VoR) Open

Abstract

Demographic changes

Population aging

Temperature-related mortality

Climate Change

Latin America

[Display omitted] •Latin America will see a doubling of excess heat mortality by 2050•Excess mortality from cold will decrease because of rising temperatures.•Population growth and aging will exacerbate heat-related mortality.•Demographic changes will offset reductions in excess mortality from cold. In Latin America, climate change, urbanization, and an aging population are intensifying health risks from extreme temperatures. To accurately assess future temperature-related mortality impacts, evidence that integrates key demographic factors—such as the dynamics of population age composition, mortality rates, and population size—is essential. We projected the impact of nonoptimal temperatures on all-age and age-specific mortality during 2045–2054 for 326 cities in Latin America. Our analysis combined city-level daily mortality counts, gridded temperature data, downscaled and bias-corrected temperature simulations, and demographic data. We projected temperature-mortality impacts under two climate change scenarios while also considering changing population size, age structure, and age-specific mortality rates. By 2045–2054, the percentage of heat-attributable deaths under the most extreme temperature scenario will more than double from 0.87 % (95 % CI 0.77; 0.96) to 2.06 % (95% CI 1.80; 2.33), but cold-related mortality will decrease. Population growth and aging will exacerbate heat-related risks and offset reductions in cold-related deaths. For example, changes in population age structure will drive an increase in the heat-related mortality rate of 176% from baseline for a moderate temperature scenario. Beyond temperature changes, demographic shifts—particularly population growth and aging—will significantly amplify mid-century temperature impacts on mortality, underscoring the need for targeted climate adaptation and public health strategies.

Metrics

5 Record Views

1 citations in Web of Science

Details

Title: Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios
Creators: Maryia Bakhtsiyarava - Drexel University
Josiah L. Kephart - Drexel University
Brisa N. Sanchez - Drexel University
M.V.S. Ramarao - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Saravanan Arunachalam - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Nelson Gouveia - Universidade de São Paulo
Iryna Dronova - University of California, Berkeley
Leah H. Schinasi - Drexel University
Usama Bilal - Drexel University
Waleska T. Caiaffa - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Andrea Jaffe - Drexel University
Ana V. Diez Roux - Drexel University
Daniel A. Rodriguez - University of California, Berkeley
Publication Details: Environment international, v 202, 109694
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 11
Grant note: Wellcome Trust: 216029/Z/19/Z, 205177/Z/16/Z, 227810/Z/23/Z Office of the Director of the National Institutes of Health: DP5OD026429
This study was financially supported by the Wellcome Trust (216029/Z/19/Z, 205177/Z/16/Z, 227810/Z/23/Z) . We acknowledge the contribution of all SALURBAL project team members. For more in-formation on SALURBAL and to see a full list of investigators, see https://drexel.edu/lac/salurbal/team/. SALURBAL acknowledges the contributions of many different agencies in generating, processing, facilitating access to data or assisting with other aspects of the project. Please visit https://drexel.edu/lac/data-evidence for a complete list of data sources. UB was supported by Office of the Director of the National Institutes of Health (award number DP5OD026429) . The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily repre-sent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Resource Type: Journal article
Language: English
Academic Unit: Drexel FIRST (Center for Firefighter Injury Research and Safety Trends); Urban Health Collaborative; Epidemiology and Biostatistics; Environmental and Occupational Health
Web of Science ID: WOS:001585416700001
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105011736154
Other Identifier: 991022065638404721