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Accepted (AM)Open Access (License Unspecified), Open
Journal article
Have Secular Changes in Perinatal Risk Factors Contributed to the Recent Autism Prevalence Increase? Development and Application of a Mathematical Assessment Model
Annals of epidemiology, v 21(12), pp 930-945
01 Dec 2011
PMID: 22000328
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
A 57% increase in the U.S. prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) for 8-year-old children born in 1994 versus 1998 was recently reported.
To quantify the possible contributions of given risk/predictive factors on the recent ASD prevalence increase, we formulated a mathematical model based on the baseline risk factor prevalence (RFP), the proportionate change in RFP (cRFP), and the magnitude of the association between the risk factor and ASD [estimated relative risk (RR)]. We applied this model to several pregnancy-related factors (preterm, very preterm, low and very low birth weight, multiple birth, cesarean delivery, breech presentation, and assisted reproductive technology use). RFP and cRFP estimates for each factor were obtained from U.S. population-based surveillance datasets. Estimated RRs were obtained from a series of systematic literature reviews.
We estimate that each risk factor examined, alone or in various combinations, accounted for a very small proportion (<1%) of the ASD increase. Additionally, hypothetical scenarios indicate RFP, cRFP, and RR all need to be sizable for a risk factor to appreciably influence ASD prevalence.
Thus, although various pregnancy factors have been found to be associated with ASDs, the contribution of many of these factors to the recently observed ASD increase is likely minimal.
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Details
- Title
- Have Secular Changes in Perinatal Risk Factors Contributed to the Recent Autism Prevalence Increase? Development and Application of a Mathematical Assessment Model
- Creators
- Laura A. Schieve - National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental DisabilitiesCatherine Rice - National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental DisabilitiesOwen Devine - National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental DisabilitiesMatthew J. Maenner - University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public HealthLi-Ching Lee - Johns Hopkins UniversityRobert Fitzgerald - Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MOMartha S. Wingate - University of Alabama at BirminghamDiana Schendel - National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental DisabilitiesSydney Pettygrove - University of ArizonaKim van Naarden Braun - National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental DisabilitiesMaureen Durkin - University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
- Publication Details
- Annals of epidemiology, v 21(12), pp 930-945
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- A.J. Drexel Autism Institute
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000296755400009
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-80855144716
- Other Identifier
- 991021463704704721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health