Journal article
Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, v 91(3), pp 598-610
01 Sep 2014
PMID: 24957546
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18 degrees C and 32 degrees C-the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts.
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Details
- Title
- Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia
- Creators
- Matthew D. Eastin - University of North Carolina at CharlotteEric Delmelle - University of North Carolina at CharlotteIrene Casas - Louisiana Tech UniversityJoshua Wexler - Louisiana Tech UniversityCameron Self - Louisiana Tech University
- Publication Details
- The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, v 91(3), pp 598-610
- Publisher
- Amer Soc Trop Med & Hygiene
- Number of pages
- 13
- Grant note
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte Faculty Research Grant (FRG) Program JMW Foundation
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Urban Health Collaborative
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000341342500028
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-84907015019
- Other Identifier
- 991021874424304721
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InCites Highlights
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
- Tropical Medicine