Journal article
Lake Erie summer chlorophyll phenology: a Bayesian additive regression trees comparison of growth and decay phases
Water research (Oxford), v 282, 123770
02 May 2025
PMID: 40345131
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
•An ensemble-tree model was used to predict western Lake Erie chlorophyll during growth and decay phases•Three model interpretation measures were evaluated for causal inference•Total phosphorus (TP) was the most important driver for chlorophyll•Other nutrients showed inconsistent effects as causal drivers•TP-chlorophyll relationship strengthens slightly during the decay phase
Synergistic effects of abiotic and biotic factors determine chlorophyll, a proxy for algal biomass in lakes. With harmful algal blooms (HABs) increasingly threatening water quality, it is important to determine the extent to which lake abiotic conditions contribute to chlorophyll that generally exhibits a growth phase leading to a summer peak followed by a decay phase. Here an ensemble-tree model implemented in the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) was used to investigate the effects of seven potential drivers on chlorophyll concentrations during both growth and decay phases in western Lake Erie in the years 2012–2022. Our findings revealed that total phosphorus (TP) consistently emerged as the dominant driver, exhibiting a positive saturating relationship. During growth, interactions between TP and nitrogen forms dominated, while beam attenuation emerged as the central interacting variable during decay phase. The TP-chlorophyll relationship was similar between the growth and decay phases of the bloom. Overall, while the TP-chlorophyll relationship is well established in freshwater lakes, the fact that TP emerges as the most important factor in an exploration that includes other nutrients, temperature, and light underscores the idea that management strategies focused on phosphorus control should be effective in reducing HABs in Lake Erie.
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Details
- Title
- Lake Erie summer chlorophyll phenology: a Bayesian additive regression trees comparison of growth and decay phases
- Creators
- Alain Isabwe - NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryTimothy J. Maguire - Drexel UniversityCraig A. Stow - NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryCasey M. Godwin - NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
- Publication Details
- Water research (Oxford), v 282, 123770
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Number of pages
- 11
- Grant note
- NOAAUniversity of Michigan: NA22OAR4320150 Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
We thank the CIGLR and GLERL teams, including their laboratory technicians, field staff, boat crews, and data managers. The research was supported by funding to CIGLR through the NOAA Cooperative Agreement with the University of Michigan (NA22OAR4320150) and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. This is GLERL contribution number 2079 and CIGLR contribution number 1264.
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Environmental Biogeochemistry
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:001490767000003
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-105004348837
- Other Identifier
- 991022053326504721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Engineering, Environmental
- Environmental Sciences
- Water Resources