Longitudinal Analysis of Long-Term Air Pollution Levels and Blood Pressure: A Cautionary Tale from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Sara D Adar, Yeh-Hsin Chen, Jennifer C D'Souza, Marie S O'Neill, Adam A Szpiro, Amy H Auchincloss, Sung Kyun Park, Martha L Daviglus, Ana V Diez Roux and Joel D Kaufman
Environmental health perspectives, v 126(10), 107003
Published, Version of Record (VoR)Access removed by US government, 1 Dec 2025 Restricted
Abstract
Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Science & Technology Toxicology
Air pollution exposures are hypothesized to impact blood pressure, yet few longitudinal studies exist, their findings are inconsistent, and different adjustments have been made for potentially distinct confounding by calendar time and age.
We aimed to investigate the associations of long- and short-term [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] concentrations with systolic and diastolic blood pressures and incident hypertension while also accounting for potential confounding by age and time.
Between 2000 and 2012, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants were measured for systolic and diastolic blood pressure at five exams. We estimated annual average and daily [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] concentrations for 6,569 participants using spatiotemporal models and measurements, respectively. Associations of exposures with blood pressure corrected for medication were studied using mixed-effects models. Incident hypertension was examined with Cox regression. We adjusted all models for sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, physical activity, diet, season, and site. We compared associations from models adjusting for time-varying age with those that adjusted for both time-varying age and calendar time.
We observed decreases in pollution and blood pressures (adjusted for age and medication) over time. Strong, positive associations of long- and short-term exposures with blood pressure were found only in models with adjustment for time-varying age but not adjustment for both time-varying age and calendar time. For example, [Formula: see text] higher annual average [Formula: see text] concentrations were associated with 2.7 (95% CI: 1.5, 4.0) and [Formula: see text] (95% CI: [Formula: see text] 1.0) mmHg in systolic blood pressure with and without additional adjustment for time, respectively. Associations with incident hypertension were similarly weakened by additional adjustment for time. Sensitivity analyses indicated that air pollution did not likely cause the temporal trends in blood pressure.
In contrast to experimental evidence, we found no associations between long- or short-term exposures to air pollution and blood pressure after accounting for both time-varying age and calendar time. This research suggests that careful consideration of both age and time is needed in longitudinal studies with trending exposures. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2966.
Longitudinal Analysis of Long-Term Air Pollution Levels and Blood Pressure: A Cautionary Tale from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Creators
Sara D Adar - University of Michigan
Yeh-Hsin Chen - University of Michigan
Jennifer C D'Souza - University of Michigan
Marie S O'Neill - University of Michigan
Adam A Szpiro - University of Washington
Amy H Auchincloss - Drexel University
Sung Kyun Park - University of Michigan
Martha L Daviglus - Northwestern University
Ana V Diez Roux - Drexel University
Joel D Kaufman - University of Washington
Publication Details
Environmental health perspectives, v 126(10), 107003
Publisher
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; United States
Number of pages
11
Grant note
RD831697 / U.S Environmental Protection Agency(EPA); United States Environmental Protection Agency
R01-HL086719; R01 HL071759; P30ES017885; T42 OH008455-09 / NIH; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA
P30 ES07033; K24 ES013195 / NIEHS; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)
UL1-TR-000040; UL1-TR-001079; UL1TR-001420 / National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS)/NIH; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS)
UL1TR001079; UL1TR001420 / NATIONAL CENTER FOR ADVANCING TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS)
HHSN268201500003I; N01-HC-95159; N01-HC-95160; N01-HC-95161; N01-HC-95162; N01-HC-95163; N01-HC-95164; N01-HC-95165; N01-HC-95166; N01-HC-95167; N01-HC-95168; N01-HC-95169 / National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute/National Institutes of Health (NIH); United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI)
P30DK020572; P30DK092926 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES AND DIGESTIVE AND KIDNEY DISEASES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Diabetes & Digestive & Kidney Diseases (NIDDK)
P30ES007033; P30ES017885 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)
T42OH008455 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH; United States Department of Health & Human Services; Centers for Disease Control & Prevention - USA; National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health (NIOSH)
Resource Type
Journal article
Language
English
Academic Unit
Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Web of Science ID
WOS:000449119500001
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85055508863
Other Identifier
991014877700304721
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