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Journal article
Low-latency Forecasts of Kilonova Light Curves for Rubin and ZTF
Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, v 138(1), 014103
01 Jan 2026
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Abstract
The follow-up of gravitational-wave events by wide-field surveys is a crucial tool for the discovery of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave sources, such as kilonovae. Machine learning tools can play an important role in aiding search efforts. We have developed a public tool to predict kilonova light curves using simulated low-latency alert data from the International Gravitational Wave Network during observing runs 4 (O4) and 5 (O5). It uses a bidirectional long-short-term memory model to forecast kilonova light curves from binary neutron star and neutron star–black hole mergers in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time filters. The model achieves a test mean squared error (MSE) of 0.12 for ZTF filters and 0.23 for Rubin filters, calculated by averaging the squared error over all time steps, filters, and light curves in the test set. We evaluate the performance of the model against merger events followed-up by the ZTF partnership during O4c. We also analyze the effect of incorporating constraints on physical features such as ejecta mass. Using ejecta mass, the performance of the model improves to an MSE of 0.1 for ZTF filters and 0.15 for Rubin filters. Our model is publicly available and can help to add important information to help plan follow-up of candidate events discovered by current and next-generation public surveys.
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Details
- Title
- Low-latency Forecasts of Kilonova Light Curves for Rubin and ZTF
- Creators
- Natalya Johnson (Corresponding Author) - Drexel University, PhysicsNiharika Sravan - Drexel University, PhysicsR. Weizmann Kiendrebeogo - University of MinnesotaMichael W. Coughlin - University of MinnesotaDerek Davis - California Institute of Technology Senior Postdoctoral Scholar, Pasadena, CA 91125, USAAndrew Toivonen - National Institute for Subatomic PhysicsTheophile Jegou du Laz - Division of PhysicsEthan Erb - Drexel University Department of Computer Science, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USATomás Ahumada - Division of PhysicsTyler Barna - University of MinnesotaGeorge Helou - Infrared Processing and Analysis CenterRoger Smith - California Institute of TechnologyBen Rusholme - California Institute of TechnologyRuss R. Laher - Infrared Processing and Analysis CenterAshish A. Mahabal - California Institute of Technology
- Publication Details
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, v 138(1), 014103
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Number of pages
- 14
- Grant note
- AST200029; PHY240341 / Accelerate ACCESS 12540303 / Heising-Simons Foundation (https://doi.org/10.13039/100014155) 2407588; AST-1440341; AST-2034437; AST-2307374; PHY- 2117997; PHY-2308862; PHY-2409481 / National Science Foundation (https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001) ANR-22-CE31-0012 / Agence Nationale de la Recherche (https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001665)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Physics
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:001661480000001
- Other Identifier
- 991022154473204721