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Macroeconomic factors and frequency domain causality between Gold and Silver returns in India
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Macroeconomic factors and frequency domain causality between Gold and Silver returns in India

Ashis Kumar Pradhan, Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Shawkat Hammoudeh
Resources policy, v 68, 101744
Oct 2020
PMID: 34173414
url
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101744View
Published, Version of Record (VoR)Maybe Open Access (Publisher Bronze) Open

Abstract

Causality India Inflation rate Macroeconomic variables
This paper examines the relationship between gold and silver returns in India, using monthly data for the period May 1991 to June 2018. To this end, we employ the recently developed frequency domain rolling-window analysis (which is able to show that transitory high frequency shocks are not equal to permanent low frequency shocks over time), as well as the conditional, partial conditional, difference conditional approaches, in addition to the Toda Yamamoto and frequency domain Granger Causalities methods. Further, the relationship is examined in conditional and unconditional frameworks. To condition the relationship, three macroeconomic variables, namely interest rate, BSE stock index and inflation rate are used as the control variables. The results uncover some interesting predictability patterns that vary along the spectrum. Specifically, by applying the rolling-window analysis, we find mixed results of the causality between the gold and silver markets based on the frequencies of different lengths. Our results provide policy inputs, assist investors and hedgers who wish to invest in these markets by constructing strategies and diversify their portfolios based on different frequencies. •Impact of macroeconomic factors on frequency domain causality between Gold and Silver returns is examined.•The results uncover some interesting predictability patterns that vary along the spectrum.•We find a significant bi-directional causality between the gold and silver markets in both the high and low frequencies but of different lengths.

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Environmental Studies
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