Journal article
Modelling lung cancer mortality rates from smoking prevalence: Fill in the gap
Cancer epidemiology, v 49, pp 19-23
Aug 2017
PMID: 28528290
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
•We estimated the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality.•For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years.•For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years.•For men, the highest rate was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths per 100,000 people).•For women, the highest rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths per 100,000).
The objective of this study is to estimate the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality and provide predictions of lung cancer mortality based on previous smoking prevalence.
We used data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006 and 2011) to obtain information about tobacco use and data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute to obtain cancer mortality rates from 1980 to 2013. We calculated the cross-correlation among the historical series of smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate (LCMR) to estimate the most likely time gap between both series. We also predicted the magnitude and timing of the LCMR peak.
All cross-correlations were statistically significant and positive (all above 0.8). For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 29 years earlier. The highest rate for men was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths). For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 0.28 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 32 years earlier. The maximum rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths).
The time series of prevalence of tobacco smoking explains the mortality from lung cancer with a distance (or gap) of around 30 years. According to the lagged smoking prevalence, the lung cancer mortality among men is declining while in women continues to rise (maximum expected in 2026).
Metrics
Details
- Title
- Modelling lung cancer mortality rates from smoking prevalence: Fill in the gap
- Creators
- Juan Carlos Martín-Sánchez - International University of CataloniaUsama Bilal - Bloomberg (United States)Ramon Clèries - Plan for Oncology of the Catalan Government, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain; Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.Cristina Lidón-Moyano - International University of CataloniaMarcela Fu - University of BarcelonaLuís González-de Paz - Centre Atenció Primària Les Corts, Transverse Group for Research in Primary Care, IDIBAPS, Barcelona, SpainManuel Franco - BloombergEsteve Fernandez - University of BarcelonaJose M. Martínez-Sánchez - International University of Catalonia
- Publication Details
- Cancer epidemiology, v 49, pp 19-23
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Urban Health Collaborative
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000407715800003
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85019931995
- Other Identifier
- 991019189143404721
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:
InCites Highlights
Data related to this publication, from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool:
- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Oncology
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health