Files and links (1)
Accepted (AM)Open Access (License Unspecified), Open
Journal article
Models of highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemics in commercial poultry flocks in Nigeria and Ghana
Tropical animal health and production, v 44(7), pp 1681-1687
01 Oct 2012
PMID: 22476732
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
State-scale and premises-scale gravity models for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Nigeria and Ghana were used to provide a basis for risk maps for future epidemics and to compare and rank plausible culling and vaccination strategies for control. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit the models to the 2006-2007 outbreaks. The sensitivity and specificity of the state-scale model-generated probabilities that any given state would be involved in an epidemic were each 57 %. The premises-based model indicated that reactive, countrywide vaccination strategies, in which the order in which flocks are vaccinated was strictly determined by known risk factors for infection, were more effective in reducing the final size of the epidemic and the epidemic impact than vaccinating flocks at random or ring vaccination. The model suggests that an introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) into Ghana had a high chance (84 %) of causing a major outbreak. That this did not happen was most probably a result of the very swift Ghanaian response to news of the first introductions.
Metrics
Details
- Title
- Models of highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemics in commercial poultry flocks in Nigeria and Ghana
- Creators
- Sky T. K. Pelletier - University of PennsylvaniaChris Rorres - University of PennsylvaniaPeter C. Macko - University of PennsylvaniaSarah Peters - University of PennsylvaniaGary Smith - University of Pennsylvania
- Publication Details
- Tropical animal health and production, v 44(7), pp 1681-1687
- Publisher
- Springer Nature
- Number of pages
- 7
- Grant note
- 5U01GM-076426 / National Institute of General Medical Sciences; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) T35OD010919 / OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC U01GM076426 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000308359100051
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-84866169842
- Other Identifier
- 991021879780704721
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:
InCites Highlights
Data related to this publication, from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool:
- Web of Science research areas
- Agriculture, Dairy & Animal Science
- Veterinary Sciences