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NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections
Journal article   Peer reviewed

NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections

Luis Ortiz, Christian Braneon, Radley Horton, Daniel Bader, Philip Orton, Vivien Gornitz, Bernice Rosenzweig, Timon McPhearson, Lauren Smalls-Mantey, Hadia Sheerazi, …
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, v 1539(1), pp 49-76
19 Aug 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15180
Featured in Collection :   UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
url
https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15180View
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Abstract

climate justice and equity climate risk climate science extreme events tail risk
We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the "hot models" associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the "hot models" associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

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15 Record Views
6 citations in Web of Science
9 citations in Scopus

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
#13 Climate Action

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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