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New Evidence on the Relation between Return Volatility and Trading Volume
Journal article   Peer reviewed

New Evidence on the Relation between Return Volatility and Trading Volume

Thomas C. Chiang, Zhuo Qia and Wing-Keung Wong
Journal of forecasting, v 29(5), pp 502-515
01 Aug 2010
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1151
Featured in Collection :   UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel

Abstract

Business & Economics Economics Management Social Sciences
In the empirical literature, it has been shown that there exists both linear and non-linear bi-directional causality between trading volumes and return volatility (measured by the square of daily return). We re-examine this claim by using realized volatility as an estimator of the unobserved volatility, adopting a stationary de-trended trading volume, and applying a more recent data sample with robustness tests over time. Our linear Granger causality test shows that there is no causal linear relation running from volume to volatility, but there exists an ambiguous causality for the reverse direction. In contrast, we find strong bi-directional non-linear Granger causality between these two variables. On the basis of the non-linear forecasting modeling technique, this study provides strong evidence to support the sequential information hypothesis and demonstrates that it is useful to use lagged values of trading volume to predict return volatility. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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45 citations in Web of Science
52 citations in Scopus

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#8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

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Domestic collaboration
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Economics
Management
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