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On the calculation of the probability of current family-planning status in a cohort of women
Journal article   Peer reviewed

On the calculation of the probability of current family-planning status in a cohort of women

Charles J. Mode
Mathematical biosciences, v 31(1)
1976

Abstract

The problem of developing a methodology for calculating the probability of current family planning status in a cohort of women is of importance in the management of a family-planning program. In this paper, the theory of a class of absorbing, age-dependent, semi-Markov processes with a finite state space is applied in an effort to develop a framework capable of yielding solutions to the problem. The most novel development in the paper is that of proposing a scheme for linking models from this class of stochastic processes together in such a way that turning points in a sequential decision process may be taken into account. Roughly speaking, a turning point in a sequential decision process is an event that determines the subsequent history of the process.

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