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Accepted (AM)Open Access (License Unspecified), Open
Journal article
Ongoing estimation of the epidemic parameters of a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model for a 1983-84 avian influenza epidemic
Avian diseases, v 55(1), pp 35-42
Mar 2011
PMID: 21500633
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
We formulate a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model of viral "Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered" animal epidemics and apply it to an avian influenza epidemic in Pennsylvania in 1983-84. Using weekly data for the number of newly infectious cases collected during the epidemic, we find estimates for the latent period of the virus and the values of two parameters within the transmission kernel of the model. These data are then jackknifed on a progressive weekly basis to show how our estimates can be applied to an ongoing epidemic to generate continually improving values of certain epidemic parameters.
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Details
- Title
- Ongoing estimation of the epidemic parameters of a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model for a 1983-84 avian influenza epidemic
- Creators
- C Rorres - University of PennsylvaniaS T K Pelletier - University of PennsylvaniaM C Bruhn - RTI InternationalG Smith - University of Pennsylvania
- Publication Details
- Avian diseases, v 55(1), pp 35-42
- Grant note
- 5U01GM-076426 / NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM076426 / NIGMS NIH HHS
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000288773300006
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-79952945595
- Other Identifier
- 991021879782604721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Veterinary Sciences