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Policy and politics: Trade adjustment assistance in the crossfire
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Policy and politics: Trade adjustment assistance in the crossfire

Christopher Laincz, Xenia Matschke and Yoto V. Yotov
The Canadian journal of economics, v 54(2), pp 760-792
01 May 2021
url
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5697.pdfView

Abstract

Business & Economics Economics Social Sciences
At a time when trade and globalization are subject to extremely polarized political debates, we study the interplay between politics and the certification outcome of trade adjustment assistance (TAA), a US national policy meant to buffer the domestic labour market from adverse effects of increased international trade. To this end, we capitalize on the unique design, implementation and detailed data collection efforts of the US TAA program. We employ a rich multi-dimensional data set to quantify the effects of political influence on the TAA certification process, controlling for a variety of fixed effects, in particular at the industry level. We find that political factors such as party affiliation of the president, congressional voting outcomes at the state and district levels and whether a petition was filed in a presidential election year influence the TAA certification probability as well as the decision time. Resume Legislation et politique : l'aide a l'ajustement commercial pris entre deux feux. A l'heure ou le commerce et la mondialisation font l'objet de debats politiques extremement polarises, nous nous interessons a l'interaction entre la politique et l'aboutissement d'une certification au plan d'aide aux rajustements commerciaux, une politique nationale americaine visant a proteger le marche national du travail des repercussions negatives liees a l'essor du commerce international. A cette fin, nous nous appuyons sur la conception singuliere, la mise en oe uvre et le recueil de donnees detaillees du Programme d'aide a l'ajustement commercial des etats-Unis (PAAC). Pour mesurer les repercussions de l'influence de la politique sur le processus de certification du PAAC, nous utilisons un ensemble de donnees multidimensionnel important tenant compte d'un ensemble d'effets fixes, notamment au niveau sectoriel. Nous constatons qu'un certain nombre de facteurs politiques, notamment l'affiliation politique du president, l'issue des votes parlementaires au niveau national et local ou le depot d'une petition au cours d'une annee d'election presidentielle peut avoir une incidence sur la probabilite d'une certification ainsi que sur le calendrier decisionnel.

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Web of Science research areas
Economics
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