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Journal article
Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach
Public health nutrition, v 25(6), pp 1711-1719
13 Dec 2021
PMID: 34895382
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Objectives: To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption. Design: We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing. Setting: We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile. Participants: A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico. Results: A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario. Conclusions: Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.
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Details
- Title
- Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach
- Creators
- Brent A. Langellier - Drexel UniversityIvana Stankov - Drexel UniversityRoss A. Hammond - Brookings InstitutionUsama Bilal - Drexel UniversityAmy H. Auchincloss - Drexel UniversityTonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Ctr Populat Hlth Res, Cuernavaca, Morelos, MexicoLeticia de Oliveira Cardoso - Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilAna V. Diez Roux - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- Public health nutrition, v 25(6), pp 1711-1719
- Publisher
- Cambridge Univ Press
- Number of pages
- 9
- Grant note
- 205177/Z/16/Z / Wellcome Trust; European Commission
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Urban Health Collaborative; Epidemiology and Biostatistics; Health Management and Policy
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000737072000001
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85121369362
- Other Identifier
- 991019168620604721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Nutrition & Dietetics
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health