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Prediction Uncertainty of Linear Building Energy Use Models With Autocorrelated Residuals
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Prediction Uncertainty of Linear Building Energy Use Models With Autocorrelated Residuals

D. K Ruch, J. K Kissock, T. A Reddy and Agami T Reddy
Journal of solar energy engineering, v 121(1), pp 63-68
01 Feb 1999

Abstract

Autocorrelated residuals from regression models of building energy use present problems when attempting to estimate retrofit energy savings and the uncertainty of the savings. This paper discusses the causes of autocorrelation in energy use models and proposes a method to deal with autocorrelation. A hybrid of ordinary least squares (OLS) and autoregressive (AR) models is developed to accurately predict energy use and give reasonable uncertainty estimates. Only linear models are considered because both the data and the physical theory for many commercial buildings support this choice (Kissock, 1993). A procedure for model selection is presented and tested on data from three commercial buildings participating in the Texas LoanSTAR program. In every case examined, the hybrid OLS-AR model provided the best estimate of energy use and the most robust estimate of uncertainty.

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16 citations in Scopus

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#7 Affordable and Clean Energy
#13 Climate Action
#11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Energy & Fuels
Engineering, Mechanical
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