Files and links (1)
Published, Version of Record (VoR)Open Access via Drexel Libraries Read and Publish Program 2025CC BY V4.0, Open
Journal article
Prediction of daily childhood asthma exacerbation from ambient meteorological, environmental risk factors and respiratory viruses, Philadelphia, PA, 2011 to 2016
Environmental science and pollution research
19 Feb 2025
Featured in Collection : Research Supported by Drexel Libraries' OA Programs
Abstract
Childhood asthma exacerbation has multiple risk factors that occur concurrently in the environment — including extreme meteorological conditions, air pollution, aeroallergens, and respiratory virus infections. Few studies have predicted asthma exacerbation based on multiple time-varying environmental risk factors, together. In this study, we constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict “high-risk” days for childhood asthma exacerbation in Philadelphia, PA from 2011 to 2016, during the aeroallergen season of each year, using a total of 28,540 asthma exacerbation case events identified from electronic health record (EHR) data. We selected predictors from quantile weighted sum regression (gQWS), incorporating temporal lags and season-stratification (early- vs. late-season), which were entered subsequently into multivariable ARIMA models. We found that daily nitrogen dioxide (NO2), as well as monthly rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection levels, were higher on the predicted “high-risk” days, as compared to days with lower childhood asthma exacerbation risk. The model performed better for late-season asthma exacerbation (July to October) than for early season (March to June). Future work and continued research is needed to facilitate local health guidelines pertaining to childhood asthma exacerbation.
Metrics
16 Record Views
Details
- Title
- Prediction of daily childhood asthma exacerbation from ambient meteorological, environmental risk factors and respiratory viruses, Philadelphia, PA, 2011 to 2016
- Creators
- Wanyu Huang (Corresponding Author) - Drexel University, Epidemiology and BiostatisticsLucy F Robinson - Drexel University, Epidemiology and BiostatisticsAmy H Auchincloss - Drexel University, Urban Health CollaborativeLeah Schinasi - Drexel University, Urban Health CollaborativeKari Moore - Drexel University, Urban Health CollaborativeSteven J Melly - Drexel University, Urban Health CollaborativeChristopher B. Forrest - Children's Hospital of PhiladelphiaChen C Kenyon - Children's Hospital of PhiladelphiaAnneclaire J De Roos - Drexel University, Urban Health Collaborative
- Publication Details
- Environmental science and pollution research
- Publisher
- Springer Nature
- Grant note
- Pennsylvania Department of Health SAP #4100072543
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics; Environmental and Occupational Health
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-105001068865
- Other Identifier
- 991022028738304721