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Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging

Nader Trabelsi, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Shawkat Hammoudeh
The North American journal of economics and finance, v 62, 101715
Nov 2022

Abstract

Cross-quantilogram Dependence Directional predictability Energy market Portfolio performance
•There is a significant directional predictability from most of energy commodities to the OPEC basket and the very light Tapis crude oil.•Predictability for both directions is enabled only between the light Brent and the light WTI and between the OPEC basket and the Malaysian Tapis.•Predictability is more accented for a one lagged day and in the upper quantiles.•Malaysian TAPIS can be a good hedging vehicle for other major energy markets.•There is a reduction of portfolio risk through diversification between two different oil regions. This study sheds a new light on the dependence and the directional predictability between eight major energy price returns, using the Cross-Quantilogram (CQ) and the Partial CQ (PCQ) analysis. The energy prices cover the time series for the U.S. natural gas and seven internationally traded crude oil types. The results reveal a significant directional predictability running from most of energy commodities returns to the OPEC basket and the very light Tapis crude oil returns. However, the quantile predictability in both directions is enabled only for the relations between the light Brent and the light WTI, and between the OPEC basket and the Malaysian Tapis. The time-varying predictability analysis reveals that there is a significant upper quantile dependence between these international energy commodities. Finally, we find that the TAPIS can be a good hedging vehicle for other energy markets. These findings may be instructive for both policymakers (in terms of financial stability) and market participants (in terms of performance).

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Business, Finance
Economics
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