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Journal article
Stochastic Downscaling of Hourly Precipitation Series From Climate Change Projections
Water resources research, v 58(10), 2022
01 Oct 2022
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Stochastic precipitation generators (SPGs) are often used to produce synthetic precipitation series for water resource management. Typically, an SPG assumes a stationary climate. We present an hourly precipitation generation algorithm for nonstationary conditions informed by the global climate model (GCM) forecasted average monthly temperature (AMT). The physical basis for precipitation formation is considered explicitly in the design of the algorithm using hourly pressure change events (PCE) to define the relationship between hourly precipitation and AMT. The algorithm consists of a multivariable Markov Chain and a moving window driven by time, temperature, and pressure change. We demonstrate the methodology by generating a 100-year, continuous, synthetic hourly precipitation time series using GCM AMT projections for the Northeast United States. When compared with historical observations, the synthetic results suggest that future precipitation in this region will be more variable, with more frequent mild events and fewer but intensified extremes, especially in warm seasons. The synthetic time series suggests that there will be less precipitation in the summers, while winters will be wetter, consistent with other research on climate change projections for the Northeast United States. This SPG provides physically plausible weather ensembles for water resource studies involving climate change.
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Details
- Title
- Stochastic Downscaling of Hourly Precipitation Series From Climate Change Projections
- Creators
- Ziwen Yu - Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USAFranco Montalto - Drexel University, Center for Public PolicyStefan Jacobson - Philadelphia Water Dept, Philadelphia, PA USAUpmanu Lall - Columbia Univ, New York, NY USADaniel Bader - Columbia UniversityRadley Horton - Columbia University
- Publication Details
- Water resources research, v 58(10), 2022
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union
- Number of pages
- 17
- Grant note
- NA15OAR4310147 / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Supporting Regional Implementation of Integrated Climate Resilience: Consortium for Climate Risks in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) Phase II*; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering; Center for Public Policy
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000870525900001
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85141691294
- Other Identifier
- 991021861287004721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Environmental Sciences
- Limnology
- Water Resources